Oil, fuel, and raw materials
BRENT
Prices surge on Strait tensions. Analysts expect $125+ if closure extends beyond 72 hours.
IFO380-SG
Singapore prices surge tracking crude. Rotterdam spread widens to $28/MT.
XAU/USD
Safe-haven demand rises. Regional central banks increasing reserves.
Shipping rates and benchmarks
BDI
Sharp increase driven by vessel scarcity as ships avoid Gulf routes.
SUEZ-WAIT
Congestion building as rerouted vessels queue for Mediterranean access.
SCFI-MED
Spot rates climb as capacity tightens. Long-term contracts outperformed.
Exchange rates and FX
USD/LBP-B
Currency weakens amid import surge. Official rate remains fixed at 15,000.
Black market premium at 497% over official rate. All import cost calculations should use parallel rate for accurate budgeting.
War risk and premiums
WRP-GULF
Premium at highest level since 2020 tanker attacks. Some underwriters refusing new policies.
Multiple underwriters refusing new policies for Gulf transit. Recommend securing coverage 72+ hours before departure.